HORMUZ SENTINEL

STRAIT OF HORMUZ — ESCORT PROBABILITY MONITOR

SIGNAL MATRIX — ESCORT PROBABILITY INDEX + 5 INDICATORS
ESCORT PROBABILITY INDEX
85.5EPI INDEX
ESCORT IMMINENT
◆ STABLE|+0.5 vs PREV
CONFIDENCE90%
SIGNAL WEIGHTS
SIG-A NAVCENT Language
30%
SIG-B NCAGS Activation
25%
SIG-C CSG Repositioning
20%
SIG-D Insurance Signals
15%
SIG-E Shipping Guidance
10%
SIG-A
CRITICAL

NAVCENT Language

10.0/10

"No new developments — score maintained from previous scan"

SIG-B
ELEVATED

NCAGS Activation

4.0/10

"No new developments — score maintained from previous scan"

SIG-C
CRITICAL

CSG Repositioning

10.0/10

"No new developments — score maintained from previous scan"

SIG-D
CRITICAL

Insurance Signals

10.0/10

"The United States has introduced a $20 billion government-backed reinsurance facility for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, entering a marine war-risk market where London insurers continue to provide cover despite sharply higher premiums."

1 SOURCE • insurancebusinessmag.com
SIG-E
CRITICAL

Shipping Guidance

10.0/10

"Major shipping lines, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, have suspended bookings, rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, and imposed emergency surcharges."

1 SOURCE • whalesbook.com
ESCALATION LADDER
0–2 BASELINE

No escort indicators. Pre-escort posture maintained.

3–4 ELEVATED

Early hints of change. Political statements, initial coordination.

5–7 HIGH

Meaningful shift detected. Operational preparations underway.

8–10 CRITICAL

Strong indicators or confirmed escort program active.

ANALYST BRIEF
09 MAR 2026, 14:51 UTC

The maritime security environment in the Strait of Hormuz remains critical, with the US government introducing a $20 billion reinsurance facility to support non-sanctioned trade. While US naval escorts have been proposed and some close escort activity has been noted, major shipping lines maintain their suspension of transit through the waterway.

WHAT CHANGED

US government introduced a $20 billion reinsurance facility for Hormuz transit. Previous high-risk assessment maintained as shipping lines remain cautious.

EPI TIMELINE109 DATA POINTS
05 Mar, 15:5106 Mar, 05:5006 Mar, 21:5007 Mar, 12:5108 Mar, 03:5008 Mar, 18:5109 Mar, 14:510255075100
INTELLIGENCE FEED2 ARTICLES
OPERATIONAL
LAST SCAN: 09 MAR 2026, 14:51 UTC
NEXT SCAN: 09 MAR 2026, 15:51 UTC
INTERVAL: 1 HOUR
25 SCANNED • 5 RELEVANT